Did Conclave Just Replace Anora As The Best Picture Frontrunner? What Its Huge BAFTAs Win Means For The Oscars 2025

Warning: This article contains minor spoilers for Conclave.Following its October 2024 release, the political drama Conclave has garnered plenty of critical acclaim, including eight Oscar nominations. The movie centers on the College of Cardinals as they select the new pope following the unexpected death of the previous pope, but not everything is what it seems, as many of the top candidates have their own best interests at heart and are willing to sabotage others to win. By the time of Conclave's surprising ending, many of those frontrunners are no longer in the race, and a better option ultimately saves the day.

Conclave's impressive cast is led by Ralph Fiennes as the dean of the College of Cardinals, but the entire supporting cast gives great performances; both Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini received Oscar nominations. Alongside these actors, Conclave received six other nominations for the 2025 Oscars, including the highly coveted Best Picture nomination. While all the races are still unknown, with each precursor awards ceremony, the field for the Best Picture winner narrows down. Following last night's BAFTA awards, Conclave may have just gotten the Best Picture push it needed.

Conclave's BAFTA Best Picture Win Could Help Its Chances At The Oscars

Conclave Won Several Awards At The BAFTAs

While Conclave has been nominated at all the major Oscars precursors that have happened so far, it has had by far the most success at the BAFTAs, which occurred on February 16, 2025, in London. Conclave received an impressive 12 nominations at the ceremony and won four: Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing. This roundup of nominations and wins made it one of the most awarded films of the night and put Conclave in its best position so far going into the final stretch of the Oscars Best Picture race.

The BAFTAs cannot be considered a direct correlation to which film will win at the Academy Awards, but in recent years, the British Academy has become more similar in its picks to the American Academy. The 2025 Oscars Best Picture race has been heavily contested so far with several controversies and no clear winner between all the precursor ceremonies. This means that Conclave's major BAFTA win allows it to rival Anora and The Brutalist. Additionally, Conclave's multiple wins mean that it may rank highly in voters' minds going into the Oscars.

Anora And The Brutalist Are Still Its Biggest Competitors

Conclave's BAFTA wins should certainly be celebrated, but that does not mean that the Best Picture race is over. Instead, Anora and The Brutalist are still massive competition in the category because they have each also won many precursor awards. Anora has secured the DGA, PGA, WGA, and Critics' Choice Awards, making it the overall predicted winner. Meanwhile, The Brutalist won the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Drama, making it another very strong contender. What's more, the BAFTAs do not always align with the Oscars.

Year	BAFTA Best Film Winner	Oscars Best Picture Winner
2014	Boyhood	Birdman
2015	The Revenant	Spotlight
2016	La La Land	Moonlight
2017	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	The Shape of Water
2018	Roma	Green Book
2019	1917	Parasite
2020	Nomadland	Nomadland
2021	The Power of the Dog	CODA
2022	All Quiet on the Western Front	Everything Everywhere All at Once
2023	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer

While Conclave's win may have significantly boosted its chances and brought more attention to the film ahed of the Oscars, it is also interesting to consider the ceremony's history of awarding primarily British films. The winners for Best Film and Best Picture do sometimes overlap, but there are often differences, with the BAFTAs more likely to favor British productions. This makes it difficult to definitively say what the Oscars will look like. If anything, Conclave's BAFTA win proves just how many great films came out in 2024, and that the Oscars Best Picture race continues to be interesting.