Oscars 2025: Mikey Madison Winning Best Actress Could Give Anora A Rarity That's Only Happened 12 Times Before
Anora star Mikey Madison has once again emerged as a legitimate threat to win Best Actress at the Oscars, and that could mean the movie securing a rare accomplishment. From the moment Sean Baker's movie debuted, viewers fell in love with Mikey Madison's performance as Anora. It came as no surprise when she ultimately earned an Oscars 2025 nomination. There was even a period of time early on when she was viewed as the frontrunner to win the category. But, the Oscars 2025 Best Actress predicted winner has shifted as the race has developed, and Anora's standing even seemingly fell.
The good news for Mikey Madison and Anora is that there are typically ebbs and flows to the awards season that allows movies to peak at different points. There was an argument to be made that Baker's movie peaked too early. It fell out of being the predicted winner of the 2025 Oscars Best Picture, and Madison dropped to second place too in many places. Anora has now solidified itself as a major Oscars contender in many categories, and it has a chance to do something that's only happened 12 times before.
Anora's Best Picture Status Has Boosted Mikey Madison's Chance To Win Best Actress
Mikey Madison Could Win The Oscar After All
The best case scenario for Anora has essentially played out over the final stretch of awards season. The movie won the top prize at PGA and saw Sean Baker win at DGA and WGA for his directing and writing. That brought a renewed sense of appreciation towards the film overall. Those wins were why we argued that Mikey Madison shouldn't be forgotten in the Oscars race, no matter how much Demi Moore seemed to have the category under control. That instinct proved right with Mikey Madison winning Best Actress at BAFTA, giving her a massive precursor victory.
Surprisingly, the initial love that Mikey Madison's performance garnered did not translate to much success when it came to Oscars precursors before BAFTA. She lost to Demi Moore at the Golden Globes, and that signaled a shift in how most looked at the race. Moore continued to rack up wins after that, and a win at BAFTA would likely have solidified her standing as the actress to beat for the Oscar. Madison's win confirmed there is still a lot of support for her and that she has a real chance to win the Oscar.
This creates a potential outcome for the Oscars 2025 where Anora wins Best Picture and Best Actress. The idea that the Best Actress Oscar winner would come from the Best Picture winner might seem like something that happens frequently. However, Anora would actually be a rare film to achieve that accomplishment at the Oscars.
Only 12 Movies Have Won Best Picture & Best Actress In Oscars History
It First Happened In 1934
Hollywood and the Oscars have a long history of being dominated by male-centric films behind and in front of the camera. It is quite rare for a movie with a female at the center of its story to win Best Picture. While plenty of Best Actress Oscar winners come from movies that also earned Best Picture nominations, it is not common for the category winners to come from the same film. In the past 96 years of the Oscars, there have only been 12 instances where the Best Actress winner came from the movie that won Best Picture.
For comparison, Best Actor has come from the Best Picture winner 27 times, more than double the Best Actress count
The very first time a movie won Best Picture and Best Actress at the Oscars came early on. 1935 saw It Happened One Night win those two categories, along with Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay. This was only the 7th Academy Awards, and it happened three more times in less than a decade. There was then a 31-year gap before another movie, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, won Best Picture and Best Actress. But, it only occurred five more times in the next 28 years.
Year | Best Picture Winner | Best Actress Winner |
|---|---|---|
1935 | It Happened One Night | Claudette Colbert |
1937 | The Great Ziegfeld | Luise Rainer |
1940 | Gone with the Wind | Vivien Leight |
1943 | Mrs. Miniver | Greer Garson |
1976 | One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest | Louise Fletcher |
1978 | Annie Hall | Diane Keaton |
1984 | Terms of Endearment | Shirley MacLaine |
1990 | Driving Miss Daisy | Jessica Tandy |
1992 | The Silence of the Lambs | Jodie Foster |
1999 | Shakespeare in Love | Gwyneth Paltrow |
2005 | Million Dollar Baby | Hilary Swank |
2021 | Nomadland | Frances McDormand |
2023 | Everything Everywhere All At Once | Michelle Yeoh |
The modern iteration of the Oscars still does not have a stellar track record of giving Best Picture to the film responsible for the Best Actress winner. Million Dollar Baby did it in 2005, but no other movie did for the next 15 years. That changed with Nomadland winning both in 2021. Everything Everywhere All At Once was the last movie to win Best Picture and Best Actress in 2023. Overall, 12.5% of Best Actress Oscar winners come from movies that won Best Picture.
Anora Winning Best Picture & Best Actress Would Continue An Improved 5 Year Trend
The Oscars Have Made Some Strides Lately
The 96-year history of the Oscars might not be kind to the idea of Best Picture and Best Actress going to the same movie, but Anora becoming the 13th film to do so overall would continue a stronger, more recent trend. This would mean that three of the last five years would give Best Actress to the lead performance in the Best Picture winner. Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Anora would collectively represent a greater recognition of female-led films at the Oscars.
Best Actress has matched the Best Picture winner twice as much [as Best Actor]
In fact, Best Actress has stronger connections to Best Picture than Best Actor does in recent years. Of the last five Best Picture winners, two won Best Actress, while only one won Best Actor. Oppenheimer is the only movie to win Best Actor and Best Picture in over a decade. Best Actress has matched the Best Picture winner twice as much already during the same stretch. Anora would mean Best Actress would triple the number of wins from Best Picture movies that Best Actor has. While the Academy's overall track record is poor, recent trends are much stronger.
The Biggest Challenge For Anora Winning Best Picture & Best Actress Isn't The Oscars' Track Record
Demi Moore Is A Major Contender As Well
Anora still has to actually win Best Picture and Best Actress if it is going to join this rare club. The history of the Oscars indicate just how difficult that is to do, but its not that track record that really poses the problem. The main thing standing in Anora's way of winning both awards is arguably Demi Moore. The Brutalist or Conclave could still surprise with a Best Picture win, but Anora has a stronger hold on Best Picture than Best Actress. It's retained its frontrunner status, even if Conclave's BAFTA win creates slightly more uncertainty.
Demi Moore, on the other hand, is still definitely in contention to win Best Actress. She has plenty of awards season success to back up her case to win, but she also has the stronger narrative. The career comeback angle with The Substance and it giving the Academy a chance to recognize a seasoned star screams Oscar winner. Plus, The Substance isn't going to win Best Picture, so Moore's Best Actress win would fall in line with the overall disconnect between the two category winners.
The chances of Anora winning Best Actress and Best Picture will become a lot more clear after SAG. Another win for Demi Moore there would wrap up the race most likely. A win by Mikey Madison would shake up the race further and prove she's a legitimate candidate to win Best Actress. But with Oscars voting now closed, Anora's fate is already decided no matter what the outcome is.
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