Oscars 2025: Why Mikey Madison Could Still Pull Off A Best Actress Upset & Beat Demi Moore

Demi Moore might be the out-and-out favorite to scoop this year’s Academy Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role, for her portrayal of Elisabeth Sparkle in The Brutalist. But Mikey Madison’s breakout performance as the title character in Anorashouldn’t be ruled out just yet. Although Moore has won three of the four major acting prizes this award season already, the Oscars is a different event altogether. 2025's list of Best Actress nominees include a wildcard that could amount to a massive upset when it comes to predictions for the 2025 Academy Awards.

Following Moore’s victory at the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards last weekend, it’s understandable that her name has already been penciled into news headlines across the globe. She’d be a deserving winner too, exemplifying the kind of Hollywood comeback story that the Academy tends to celebrate. Her horrifying physical transformation throughout the movie would also break new ground for an Oscar-winning actor. Nevertheless, Moore will be looking over her shoulder at Madison until the moment one of their names is read out during the ceremony.

Demi Moore's SAG Award Is No Guarantee Based On Recent Years

Half The SAG Winners Since 2018 Didn’t Win The Best Actress Oscar

Demi Moore’s SAG Award win should have further boosted her Oscar chances, as it has done for Timothée Chalamet in the male Best Actor category. But unfortunately for Moore, recent history tells us that a triumph in SAG’s female lead category is no guarantee of Oscars victory. Three female actors who won the Screen Actors’ Guild Award in the past six years didn’t go on to win the Oscar. Glenn Close was beaten by Olivia Colman in 2019, while Viola Davis in 2021 and Lily Gladstone last year had every right to feel aggrieved at missing out on film acting’s top prize.

Demi Moore's Elisabeth looking insanely into a reflection in The Substance

Demi Moore Winning Best Actress Would Achieve This Oscars First For The Substance

Demi Moore is favorite to win 2025's Best Actress Oscar, for her role in The Substance. If she wins, it'll be a historic moment for a niche subgenre.

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On the other hand, this recent trend is an exception to the more general rule. Since the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards began in 1995, 19 of the 30 Outstanding Female Lead victors have then won the Academy Award the same year. These numbers still leave plenty of room for doubt, but ultimately add to the odds stacking up in Demi Moore’s favor, and don’t help Mikey Madison’s chances at this year’s Oscars.

The Oscars 2025 Best Actress Race Has A Spoiler Candidate That SAG Didn't

Fernanda Torres’ Performance In I’m Still Here Could Cause A Surprise

However, there could be an additional obstacle in Moore’s way that she wouldn’t have bet on preventing her Oscar win. In the Academy’s Best Actress category, there’s one candidate who’s been gaining some ground on both Moore and Madison in recent weeks. Brazilian actor Fernanda Torres is getting the Oscars recognition that her extraordinary performance as Eunice Paiva in I’m Still Here warrants. She wasn’t nominated for the SAG Award, meaning that her effect on the Oscars race is difficult to predict.

"Fernanda Torres is tremendous in a difficult role. She conveys every emotion with such nuance that you have to be watching her face and body language the entire time to truly decipher every feeling she embodies." - Mae Abdulbaki

- ScreenRant's review of I'm Still Here

Torres is still a 16-1 rank outsider to take home the Oscar, but the fact that she’s gaining ground suggests that some of the Academy’s votes have gone her way. At the very least, she could take a portion of votes that Moore might otherwise have collected, allowing Madison to cause an unlikely upset.

Demi Moore Is Still The Best Actress Favorite, But Don't Be Shocked If Mikey Madison Wins

This Oscars Category Is Too Difficult To Call Right Now

It does feel like Demi Moore’s year to take home an Oscar, for a performance that’s topical as much as it is revitalizing for her career. Still, the Academy Awards don’t always follow the script, as 2017’s Best Picture debacle illustrates. In the Best Actress category, Before losing to Emma Stone at last year’s Oscars, Lily Gladstone seemed nailed on to become the first Native American to win the award. 20 years ago, Annette Benning was the favorite and Kate Winslet was the performance that’s still talked about today, but Hillary Swank collected her second Oscar in five years. Emma Stone achieved a similar feat last year.

Moore might still have the Oscars momentum to get over the line, but the safest bet for this year’s Best Actress is to avoid a definitive prediction.

Most of the buzz around Mikey Madison’s performance in Anora has come in the last three weeks, and her win at the BAFTAs cemented her place as clear second-favorite to Moore. Moore might still have the Oscars momentum to get over the line, but the safest bet for this year’s Best Actress is to avoid a definitive prediction. This one could still go either way.

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