Every winter, trekkers begin to call us, asking us, “By when can I see snow on treks? When is the first snowfall expected?” 

These questions often leave us tongue-tied because snowfall in our country is determined by so many factors that no one year is the same as the other. 

Take, for instance, the last few years of 2022, 2023 and 2024. We have witnessed very minimal to almost no snowfall on our treks in Uttarakhand until the end of January. 

On the other hand, this year, 2025, we have already started seeing snowfall across our treks in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh in early October. 

Why does this happen?

The truth is, the Himalayas don’t receive snowfall uniformly every year. Snowfall in the Himalayas depends on a mix of local weather conditions, geography, and global climate cycles.

So in this article, I hope to break down all the factors that affect snowfall in the Himalayas. It will give you an understanding of why snowfall varies so much from year to year. You’ll understand what really goes on behind those magical white winters: how winds, temperatures, western disturbances, and even global patterns like El Niño and La Niña play a role.

By the end of this article, you may not be able to circle a date on your calendar for the first snowfall, but you’ll know exactly why the mountains behave the way they do each winter.

Western Disturbance - The Primary Snow Bringer

• If you trek in winter, you’ve probably heard your trek leader mention “a Western Disturbance is coming.” That Western Disturbance (in short WD) is the hero of Himalayan snowfall.
• Western Disturbances are low-pressure systems that originate over the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea and Caspian Sea. They travel eastward, gathering moisture along the way, and when they hit the Himalayas, they rise, cool, and drop that moisture as rain or snow — depending on altitude.
• Western Disturbances are the main reason the western Himalayas (J&K, Himachal, Uttarakhand) receive snow in winter. When WDs are strong and frequent, trails like Kedarkantha, Dayara Bugyal, Brahmatal, etc, turn into snowy wonderlands. When they’re weak or absent, the same trails stay dry.
• Western Disturbances move across regions with the help of jet streams: powerful air currents that flow in the Earth’s atmosphere. These jet streams generally blow from west to east, which is why they’re often referred to as the westerlies.
• Typically, 4–6 major WDs affect India between December and March. Their timing and strength decide whether you’ll find fresh powder or crunchy, old snow on your trek.

Read an interview with an expert meteorologist about Western Disturbances and how they affect our country’s winter.

Seasonal Timing: When Does Snowfall Really Begin?

Although meteorological winter starts in December, “snowfall season” in the Himalayas actually begins by late November, when the first few WDs arrive.

But the heaviest snowfall usually occurs between January and early March, when temperatures are consistently low enough for snow to settle and WDs are more active.

Of course, altitude plays a big role. You’ll often find snow accumulating above 9,000–10,000 ft, while lower trails might just get frost or sleet. North-facing slopes hold snow much longer than sunny southern ones, which is why you might find snow patches well into April on certain sides of a ridge.

Global Climate Patterns and how they affect snowfall in India

While Western Disturbances are the direct cause of snow, they don’t operate in isolation. Thousands of kilometres away, vast ocean systems decide how strong or weak these disturbances become.

1. What are El Niño (pronounced "el NEEN-yo") and La Niña (pronounced “la NEEN-ya”)?

• Western Disturbances might be the direct cause of snow, but they don’t act alone. Their strength and frequency are controlled by powerful global climate systems: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), originating from the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, and some other climate patterns in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.
• How does ENSO affect the WDs?

• The last winter in which we received considerable snowfall from frequent and intense WDs in winters from early December was 2021-22, which was a La Niña winter.
• Research studies have shown that El Niño winters correlate with reduced WD activity and warmer-than-normal temperatures in North India.

2. Impact of other global climate patterns:

a. IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) 

• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in the Indian Ocean characterised by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures between its western and eastern poles, similar to El Niño.
• Positive IOD (warmer West Indian Ocean) → more moisture in the air → can enhance snowfall.
• Negative IOD → drier air → less snow.
  

b. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean defined by the difference in atmospheric pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Its positive phase has stronger high and low-pressure systems, leading to stronger westerly winds, thus influencing the western disturbances(WDs) with higher frequency and intensity.
• Positive NAO → stronger jet streams → more Western Disturbances → snowier Himalayas.
• Negative NAO → weaker jets → fewer WDs → drier winters.

c. The Combined Effect

• These systems act together in impacting the amount of snowfall in winter.
• Himalayan winter snowfall is subject to variation based on the simultaneous states of ENSO, IOD, and NAO, with their strength.

I was speaking with Ravi Ranjan, our Head of Safety at Indiahikes, about how Himalayan winters have changed over the past decade. He recalled that the winter of 2018–2019 brought some of the heaviest snowfall he had seen in recent years, with the peak in January 2019. Snow piled up to nearly three feet in Sankri, a base village of Kedarkantha, staying on the ground for a week, and the overall snowfall that season was exceptionally high. Interestingly, that winter coincided with a weak El Niño, along with a positive IOD and NAO — a combination that likely enhanced Western Disturbance activity.

When I experienced my first Himalayan winter in 2021–22, conditions were quite similar, but with lesser intensity than the winter of 2018-19. We saw frequent spells of snow across almost all Uttarakhand treks. That year, our planet was under prolonged La Niña conditions, coupled with a negative IOD and positive NAO, another mix that favoured good snowfall in the region.

From this, we can understand that it is not just one factor, but a combination of multiple global climate patterns at play that impact snowfall in the Himalayas.

The Role of Climate Change 

Even as these global systems continue to influence snowfall in the Himalayas, one major factor that we must not overlook is climate change.

Rising temperatures mean:

• The snowline is moving higher. Areas that used to get snow now get rain.
• Western Disturbances are becoming more erratic, sometimes fewer in number but more intense when they arrive.
• Snow melts faster, shortening the snow season overall. 

Trekkers and our team members who remember walking on snow until March a decade ago now often find the same trails clear by mid-February.

Local Geography and Microclimates

Even within the Himalayas, snowfall isn’t uniform.

• Western regions (J&K, Himachal and Uttarakhand) get more snow due to direct WD exposure.
• Eastern regions (Sikkim, North Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh) are influenced by local moisture and monsoon systems as well, along with WD.
• North-facing slopes and shaded valleys preserve snow longer, while sun-exposed faces lose it faster.

Altitude, aspect, and orientation all shape how much snow you’ll see on your trek.

What It Means for Trekkers

So what the trekkers can expect when looking for a winter trek:

• El Niño winter → expect less snow
• La Niña winter → expect deep snow, carry microspikes, gaiters, and adequate winter gear.
• Late-season treks (Feb–Mar) → more stable weather, but snow melting fast.
• Always check India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts, local reports and weather updates from Indiahikes on the website and Instagram.
• But when we look at the bigger picture, predicting snowfall in the Himalayas isn’t easy. There are many moving pieces — global and local — that influence the Western Disturbances, which ultimately decide when, where, and how much snow will fall.

Snowfall in the Himalayas is one of nature’s most beautiful spectacles — yet it’s also a reminder of how fragile and interconnected our planet’s systems are. The winds that bring snow to the Himalayas begin their journey over distant oceans — from the Pacific to the Atlantic — carrying traces of global climate rhythms in every flake that falls.